The 'zombie map' of misleadingly colour-coded regional differences has made another unwelcome return on social media. In a previous post, I attempted to illustrate the regional strengths of parties in a more useful way, and the following map builds on that. Instead of plotting each party's seats in each constituency against the district magnitude, in the plot below I use the party's highest constituency seat share as the upper limit (see the colour bar in the legend for specific party totals).
Plotting the data like this allows us to visualise the extent to which - assuming 2015 constituency levels of support - national-level polling would result in concentrations of seats in particular areas or, conversely, a more geographically dispersed allocation of seats.
For example, we can see that Kukiz'15's support is broad and shallow: it currently polls at around 10%, gaining 44 seats which are spread across all but one constituency. By comparison, while SLD is currently polling around 8%, its reach in certain areas is more limited, particularly in the south-east.
This map also highlights the particular geographical concentration of support for PiS, while making it clear that the party also draws significant support from constituencies in the west. Although that map of PiS versus PO votes looks striking and does bear out some legacies of the past, the plots above give a more useful visualisation of actual party strengths. Poland is not as divided as the zombies would have you believe.